Meta AI as a Thinking and Planning Partner
Lesson 2: Assumption Testing and Pre-Mortem Analysis
Lesson Objectives
By the end of this lesson, students should be able to:
- Apply assumption mapping to identify hidden decision premises
- Use the load-bearing assumption test
- Conduct a pre-mortem analysis for a plan or project
- Distinguish reversible failure modes from catastrophic ones
Lesson Content
Assumption mapping.
Every plan or decision rests on assumptions – things believed to be true that haven't been verified. When key assumptions turn out to be false, plans fail in predictable ways.
"I am planning to [describe plan or decision]. Help me identify: what assumptions am I making about [people, resources, market, timeline, my own capabilities, external conditions]? List the assumptions I have most likely not made explicit."
The load-bearing assumption test.
Not all assumptions are equally important. Load-bearing assumptions are the ones whose failure would fundamentally change the decision or plan:
"Of the assumptions we identified, which are load-bearing? Which ones, if they turned out to be false, would most significantly change whether this plan makes sense or what the right approach is?"
Verifying assumptions before they bite.
After identifying load-bearing assumptions:
"For each load-bearing assumption, help me identify: (1) what evidence would confirm or disconfirm it before I proceed, and (2) how I could test it quickly and cheaply before committing significant resources."
Pre-mortem analysis.
Pre-mortem is a technique for imagining failure before it happens – the opposite of positive planning.
"Imagine it is [X months] from now and this plan/project has failed significantly. Not a minor setback – a genuine failure. Looking back, what went wrong? Walk me through the three or four most plausible failure narratives."
Follow-up:
"Of those failure narratives, which ones could I prevent or mitigate with changes to my plan now? And which represent real risks I need to accept and prepare to recover from?"
The catastrophic vs. recoverable distinction.
For each failure mode identified:
- Recoverable: setback, learning, retry – uncomfortable but not fatal
- Catastrophic: loss that cannot be recovered – financial ruin, irreversible relationship damage, health consequences
Pre-mortem attention should be concentrated on preventing catastrophic failures, not just reducing likelihood of any failure.
Enroll to continue this lesson.
The preview above shows the lesson objectives and opening lesson content. Enroll to view the full lesson, complete the practice work, and take the lesson quiz.